Economic Analysis & Forecasting

CAPA Consulting and its Associates can provide economic modeling and analysis and develop demand forecasts for government departments and agencies, and other operators and stakeholders in the aviation sector. Our consultants are skilled in collecting statistical data, designing methodology and building models to quantify the potential net benefits and detriment associated with policy, industry or market developments or reform. These changes can have specific impacts on the economy, tourism, consumers and trade.

Our analytical framework combines an understanding of the drivers of market growth and competition with a technical capability to establish modeling methodology and apply this to an assessment of impacts under high, base and low scenarios. The process accounts for sensitivities and the anticipated market and consumer response; the benefits flowing to trade (i.e. through relevant multiples); and impacts on market demand and facilitation through such issues as improved connectivity and market access.

These skills have been applied to a range of assignments for public and private sector clients, including:

• Development of traffic forecasts for metropolitan and regional airports and hotel groups in Australia, New Zealand and India;
• Economic modelling and methodology development in relation to passengers and freight;
• Cost-benefit and tourism impacts analysis of government policy;
• Reviews of supply chain, transport market structures and their impacts on service systems;
• Competition policy and market access reviews;
• Privatisation of airports; and
• Econometric analysis of demand for public service utilities; and
• Assessments of economic regulation policy.